Page 6 - Fuels & Lubes International 2013 - Q1
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回顾2012年，在金融市场上和在大宗商品市场上，我们看到了截然不同的景
象。即使是宏观经济也显现出多元化。
最新数据表明，2012年经历了一次明显的经济下滑，增长率仅为3.4%，而
2010年和2011年则分别为4.9%和3.7%。虽然经济增长缓慢，金融市场则大大超
越了预期。中国股市表现最差，但也仅损失了2%。债券市场，包括政府债和企业
债，也表现良好。在弱势经济环境下，这种表现的主要原因是政府的政策，特别是
欧洲和美国的央行，降低了欧元区解体的风险，并避免了新一轮的全球衰退。股
市表现良好，但估值较低；高价的政府债则表明投资者并不相信各个主要的风险
已在控制之中。
欧洲依然陷于衰退，预期这种情况将持续几个季度。然而，在第三季度，欧
元区的表现出人意料。但到了第四季度，由于经济停滞，各国的政策制定者们不
能也不愿意在根本上解决危机的根源，危机感再次上升。希腊就是一个痛苦的例
子，其简单的紧缩措施而无充分的经济改革步入了死胡同。
LOOkINg bACk At 2012, we get A Very dIVerSe pICture
from looking at the financial and commodity markets. even the
macroeconomic picture is a diverse one.
recent data reveal that 2012 experienced significant economic
downturn, with growth at around 3.4%, compared to 4.9% and 3.7% in
2010 and 2011, respectively. despite the slower growth, however, financial
markets have generally exceeded expectations. The Chinese equity
market is one of the few disappointing markets with a loss of 2%. bond
markets—government and corporate—have also performed very well.
The main reason for such a strong performance in the midst of a weaker
economic environment is that policy action by governments, especially
central banks in europe and the u.S., have reduced the perceived risk of a
eurozone break-up and a new global recession. The rally in equity markets
on theway?
是否已在复苏？
B A S E O I L C O L UMN
基础油专栏
a quarterly in-depth analysis of the global base oil market by
Is recovery
作者：
Jeroen Looye
“Is recovery on the way?” continued on
page 38 >>
“是否已在复苏”下转
38页 >>
FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL
Quarter One 2013
6
