Page 20 - Fuels & Lubes International 2013 - Q1

C O V E R S T O R Y 封面故事
NOT SHOCKING:
but electrification will change
the automobile industry
并不吃惊：但电动化将改变汽车行业
It IS geNerALLy SuppOSed IN the
oil and gas industry that the electrification
of automobiles will have little effect on
sales at least up to 2020, and perhaps not
even much thereafter. electric vehicles
(eVs) and hybrids are perceived as
marginal, top-of-the-market choices for very
affluent consumers, and as too expensive for
most businesses to invest in for their fleets.
but all this is changing, and much faster
than general perception would suppose. As the
chart shows, hybrids and full eVs are forecast
The pace of electrification of cars is much more rapid than initially predicted.
This won’t mean disastrously rapid change for the petroleum industry, but the industry
should take steps to adapt anyway.
汽车的电动化较最初的预期要快许多。这并不意味着石油行业会发生灾难性的
变化，但这个行业必须采取必要的措施。
to comprise 5.4% of the u.S.
market by 2015.
“In China, and in
europe, the figure could
be considerably higher
at that point, given that
regulatory pressure will be
even more considerable in
those markets,” says börje
grandin, head of advanced engine design at
Volvo Car Corp. at göteborg, Sweden. “granted,
movement has been slow in these markets, but
油气行业通常认为，汽车的电动化至少在2020
年前甚至更远的时间内对销售的影响甚微。电动汽
车（EV）和混合动力汽车被认为只是非常富裕的消
费者的边缘化的、市场尖顶上的选择，对于大多数企
业来说投资电动车队过于昂贵。
但这一切正在发生变化，而且较一般的预测快
得多。如图所示的预测，到2015年，混合动力汽车和
全电动汽车将占美国市场的5.4%。
“到那时，鉴于这些国家的法规压力，中国和欧
洲数字将更高。” 位于瑞典哥德堡的沃尔沃汽车公
司先进发动机设计部门负责人Börje Grandin说。“
这些市场目前进展缓慢，但当局正在下大力气。”
作者：Andrew Rosenbaum
FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL Quarter One 2013 20