Page 22 - Fuels & Lubes International 2013 - Q1

lithium-ion battery innovation, confirm that the
industry consensus is to use that technology for
its batteries. The lab, which is located outside
Chicago, Illinois, is one of the u.S. department
of energy’s (u.S. dOe) largest national
laboratories for scientific and engineering
research. They estimate that worldwide demand
for electric car batteries will soon reach 8
million metric tons (Mt), or three-quarters
of the world’s total production of lithium. The
global market for lithium-ion batteries is set
to hit uS$22 billion by 2020, according to pike
research, from uS$8 billion today. but some
analysts say that it will reach that level much
faster.
The u.S. dOe is funding the creation of
the Joint Center for energy Storage research,
intended to create a hub for the considerable
efforts taking place in America, according to its
deputy director, Jeff Chamberlain. Chamberlain
points to equally vast r&d efforts underway
with support from both China and the
european union, he points to improvements
in the range, cost and life of the battery, which
are all being worked on to make eVs more
competitive.
ge research in detroit is involved in a
project to put better sensors into these batteries
to improve battery life. but advances are also
underway, bringing increased energy density
with the lithium-air battery or techniques
which increase their safety. progress with range
extenders, eVs equipped with a small internal
combustion engine (ICe) whose sole purpose
is to recharge the battery on the move, is also
showing significant increases in cost efficiency,
grandin adds.
In January, toyota and bMw announced
that they will jointly research a lithium-air
battery for use in hybrid and full eVs. The
goal is to produce a battery that will provide a
range of 500 miles, and the two companies are
investing uS$43 million.
progress has been even more rapid for a
plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (pheV) battery.
In China, this kind of vehicle, with a 15 kwh
battery, is expected to reach cost parity with a
petrol-powered car around 2017, thanks to lower
battery cost. This same kind of vehicle, with a
smaller battery (10 kwh) is expected to reach
cost parity as early as 2014 in that country.
The pressure of increased regulation
Support for much of this research is
coming from governments around the world.
These are increasing regulatory pressure on
the automobile industry to make progress with
alternative fuels, and electrification is seen as
the most promising of these alternatives.
No market is more interesting to the
automobile industry today—or to any other
industry—than that of China.
well aware of China’s near-total
dependence on imported oil, the Chinese
government has done and continues to do much
to promote the adoption of electric cars.
The government’s 12th Five-year plan
targets ownership of 5 million battery-electric
vehicles by 2020. yet, just 1,000 such vehicles
were registered in the third quarter of 2011—less
than 0.02% of new vehicle registrations during
this period, according to a Mckinsey report.
This is in spite of the government spending
CNy100 million (uS$15.9 million) on research
and development and providing large subsidies
for the purchase of electric-battery vehicles.
but the Chinese government is taking
further steps to improve its policies in this area,
and to make electric cars work. policymakers
have already begun to adopt a more feasible
timetable and approach to developing electric
cars. Instead of attempting to quickly push
battery-electric cars into mass production, and
in doing so to push domestic OeMs to dedicate
large-scale production, China is adopting a
phased approach. A recent Ministry of Science
and technology policy lays out the new timeline
for the development of electric vehicles.
ƒ From 2011 to 2015: Mass production of
hybrid electric vehicles;
ƒ From 2015 to 2020: Accelerated
development of plug-in hybrids and battery-
electric vehicles;
ƒ After 2020: wide adoption of battery-
electric vehicles.
The Mckinsey report notes that public
fleets of cars and trucks are likely to be the most
important users of the new technologies, much
more so than individual consumers, particularly
at the outset.
The european union, both federally, and
through its member-states individually, is
taking a “carrot and stick” approach with its
automobile industry in regard to electrification.
Currently, 17 of the 27 european union
countries levy carbon dioxide-related taxes
on passenger cars, and 15 nations offer tax
incentives for plug-in vehicles, according to
the european Automobile Manufacturers’
Association (ACeA). Incentives are largely
based on the vehicle’s level of carbon emissions,
determined by standards linked to europe’s
climate change targets. whether the vehicle
is pure electric, hybrid, natural gas-fueled or
此类项研究也有相当的支持，以提高总行驶里程、电
池的成本和使用寿命，使电动汽车更具竞争力。
位于底特律的GE研究正在开展一个在电池中置
入传感器以提升电池寿命的项目。此外，提升锂-空
气电池能源密度或提升其安全性的技术也正在研发
当中。在增加行驶里程方面，装有小型内燃机以给电
池充电的电动汽车也有进展，或将显著提高成本效
率，Grandin补充说。
在一月份，丰田和宝马宣布他们将联合研发一种
用于电动汽车和混合动力汽车的锂-空气电池。目标
是生产一种可以提供行驶500英里的电池，两家公司
的总投资为4300万美元。
插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）用电池的进展更
快。在中国，随着电池成本的下降，预计到2017年，
装有15kWh电池的这类汽车的成本将与以汽油为动
力的汽车的成本持平。装有较小电池（10kWh）的这
类汽车的成本则预期在2014年与汽油车持平。
更严法规带来的压力
这项研究工作的支持主要来自世界各国的政
府。对于汽车行业进一步使用替代性燃料，各国的法
规日趋严格，电动汽车被视为最有潜力的替代方式。
今天，没有哪个市场比中国的汽车行业更有趣。
意识到近乎全部依赖进口油的问题，中国政府已经
并将继续推动电动汽车的采用。
在中国政府的十二五计划中，到2020年，电池
电动汽车的保有量目标为500万辆。但据麦肯锡报
告，截止2011年第三季度登记的电动汽车仅有1000
辆，在当期新车中的占比不到0.02%。而且这是在
政府在研发和对购买电动汽车的补贴上花费了1亿元
（1590万美元）所带来的结果。
但是中国政府正在进一步改进这个领域的政策
以推动电动汽车的发展。政策制定者已采用了更为
可行的时间表和方法。这次不是力推电池-电动汽车
的量产，中国采取了分阶段的方式。近期中国科技部
的政策确定了新的电动汽车发展时间表。
ƒ 从2011年到2015年：混合动力汽车量产；
ƒ 从2015年到2020年：加速发展插电式混合
动力和电池电动汽车；
ƒ 2020年以后：广泛采纳电池-电动汽车。
麦肯锡的报告指出公共汽车和卡车车队有可能
是新技术的重要用户，尤其在初期。
欧盟及其成员国对汽车行业电动车化则采取
了“胡萝卜加大棒”的方式。
按欧洲汽车制造商协会（ACEA）报告，目前，27
年欧盟成员国中有17国已开始对乘用车征收二氧化
碳排放税，15个国家对插电式汽车提供税收优惠。
激励措施主要根据汽车按欧洲气候变化目标所相关
的标准测定的碳排放水平。无论是纯电动的，混合动
力，使用天然气或采用其他方式驱动，主要的指标就
是碳排放。从逻辑上讲，电动汽车是零碳排放，可以
享受最高的激励条件。
按欧洲汽车制造商协会（ACEA）报告，目前，27
年欧盟成员国中有17国已开始对乘用车征收二氧化
碳排放税，15个国家对插电式汽车提供税收优惠。
激励措施主要根据汽车按欧洲气候变化目标所相关
的标准测定的碳排放水平。无论是纯电动的，混合动
力，使用天然气或采用其他方式驱动，主要的指标就
是碳排放。从逻辑上讲，电动汽车是零碳排放，可以
享受最高的激励条件。
各成员国把2020年作为实现这个目标的截止日
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