Page 23 - Fuels & Lubes International 2013 - Q1

propelled by another means is largely irrelevant;
the key figure is carbon emissions. Logically,
electric cars with zero carbon emissions qualify
for the largest incentives.
The eu issued a major call for research
proposals on electric vehicles in February 2012.
Separately, brussels is preparing a directive that
will impose rigid guidelines for eV charging
stations, and a minimum number of charging
points to spur market demand as part of its
legislative proposal on alternative fuels.
Member-states will have 2020 as a deadline
to meet the new targets. The Commission has
already imposed a target of 10% market share
for vehicles with alternative fuels (of all kinds)
by 2020.
perhaps one of the most draconian
developments has come from the u.S. In
September, president barack Obama introduced
new fuel efficiency standards, which will require
all cars and light-duty trucks to operate at 54.5
miles per gallon (Mpg) by 2025, nearly doubling
current requirements.
“while manufacturers are responding
with changes in petroleum fuel technology, the
move has spurred a major push for electric cars
as well,” says dan Meszler, of the Abingdon,
Maryland-based Meszler engineering Services.
“The industry is viable: traditional automakers,
as well as a number of start-ups, continue to
establish inroads into the electric vehicles
market. key government incentives and policies
serve as important drivers for the industry’s
growth; these include significant u.S. federal
and selected state governmental funding, and
current and pending policies directed toward
supporting electric vehicle development,
sales, electricity regulation and pricing and
infrastructure. by 2015, we forecast over 100
models available in the u.S. market covering the
four technology groups (including fuel cells).
regular hybrids will remain most prevalent in
both the number of vehicle offerings and volume
(approximately 55% of projected volume); with
plug-ins and full electrics each representing
about 20% of projected volume.”
As in europe and in China, fleets will be
the biggest early adopters, long before most
consumers, Meszler adds.
Disruptive business models
Along with the need to adapt to regulatory
pressure, manufacturers are finding ways to
avoid charging both business and consumer
clients high prices that electric cars have been
cursed with in the past.
“There are new business models that car
companies and other innovators are beginning
to experiment with to enable them to get around
the high-price barrier that remains the most
formidable obstacle to the electric car market,”
hampton says.
One that is currently being piloted by
France’s renault is to lease the expensive electric
battery separately. The car owner pays them
only for the electricity he/she uses, while the
battery remains an asset under ownership by the
manufacturer.
Still another pilot scheme, hampton
explains, involves creating a network of
charging points. An Israeli company called
“better place” is attempting this approach in
several countries in europe. The idea is to have
batteries available at a large network of points,
and the driver then replaces his expended
battery at one of these points. Consumers can
also rent these batteries at the points for the
storage of solar energy at home.
“These are only a few of many new ideas
that are being tried,” hampton says, “and
it’s easy to scoff at such innovations. but as
businesses keep trying, sooner or later, new
disruptive models will work, and that will mean
even greater and more rapid adoption of electric
cars in the market place.”
Conclusion: no shocks, but change is coming
faster than expected
while clearly it is unlikely that any of
these changes will have much effect in the very
short term, it is clear that movement on the
electrification front is taking place much faster,
and on a much broader scale than was seen
in the general perceptions we described at the
beginning of this article.
The effect on the market will not be
convulsive, but it will be noticeable, and
the petroleum industry should certainly be
prepared to adapt. with that said, the market
will still be dominated by petrol-powered
cars, except perhaps in China where there is a
market lag even for these. As Meszler points
out, there is technology to cope with the Obama
administration demand for increased fuel
economy with ICe cars – there is no absolute
need to switch to electric ones.
but electric cars will become increasingly
cheaper, and regulators will make operating
petrol-powered ones increasingly more difficult.
That is what the future will look like, and it’s not
so far away.
期。欧盟委员会早已确定了在2020年（各类）替代性
燃料汽车的市场份额为10%的目标。
“欧洲制造商已回应了这个号召，我们是先行
者之一，” Grandin说。
最严酷的发展可以在美国。九月份，奥巴马总统
批准了新燃油经济性标准，要求到2025年所有汽车
和轻型卡车都达到每加伦54.5英里（MPG），较现在
的指标增加了一倍。
“制造商正在应对石油燃料技术的变化，
这些行为也推进了电动车的发展，”常驻马里兰
州Ab ingdon的Me s z l e r工程服务公司的Dan
Meszler说。“这个行业是可以发展下去的：传统的
和新兴的汽车制造商将继续建设电动汽车市场。政
府的主要激励措施和政策服务是行业发展的主要推
动力；这包括美国联邦政府和部分州政府的资助；
目前及将要推出的针对电动汽车开发、销售、电力法
规、定价和基础设施的各项政策。到2025年，我们预
计美国市场的电动汽车车型将超过100种，主要包括
四大技术（包括燃料电池）。常规的混合动力汽车将
在数量和品种上占主导地位（约占预计总量的55%）；
插电式全电动车一种将占预计总量的20%。”
Meszler补充道，欧洲和中国，车队将是最大的
早期采用者，远早于大多数消费者。
突破的商业模式
除了需要适应法规压力，制造商也在寻找方法，
避免向企业和消费者收取高价，这是电动汽车一直以
来的主要缺点。
“汽车公司和其他的创新者已开始尝试新的商
业模式以避开高价这个障碍，” Hampton说。
法国雷诺正在试点的一种方式就是单独租赁昂
贵的电池。车主只有在使用电池时才付费，电池的所
有权归制造商。
Hampton解释说，另一项试点是建设充电网
点。一家名为“Better Place”的以色列公司在欧洲
的数个国家正在尝试这种方式。其核心概念是在网
点上提供电池，车主可以在这些网点更换用完的电
池。消费者也可以从这些网点租赁电池以便在家存
储太阳能。
“这些只是许多尝试中的一小部分，”
Hampton说，“对这些试点嗤之以鼻当然很容易。
但随着企业的不断尝试，迟早会找到一种可行的突
破性商业模式，使得市场更快更广泛地接受电动汽
车。”
结论：并不吃惊，但变化来得比预期快
很明显，这些变化在短期内不会有太大的作用，
同样，汽车电动化的进程也比本文开头处所提到的
一般认识要更快、更广泛。
对市场的影响不会是休克性的，但可以看得见，
石油行业应该作好应对。虽然如此，市场还将由石油
产品为动力的汽车所主导； 除了中国，可能由于电动
汽车和混合动力汽车更快速的发展而占有更大的份
额。正如Meszler指出的，对于奥巴马政府要求的内
燃机汽车燃油经济性新标准，会有相应的技术来达
到这个目标，并非一定要转为电动汽车。
但是，电动汽车将越来越价廉，法规将使驾驶石
油产品为动力的汽车越来越困难。未来就是这样，未
来并不遥远。
23 FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL Quarter One 2013