Page 21 - Fuels & Lubes International 2013 - Q1

great efforts are underway by the authorities,”
he says.
Along with pressure from regulators,
technological progress is moving much faster
than was initially expected. “The most expensive
component of electrification, the battery, is
seeing reduced cost and improved performance
at a rapid rate,” explains david hampton, an
expert on automobile technology with the
London office of the Irbaris consultancy. “The
technology continues to improve, leading
battery manufacturers, working closely
with automobile producers, have built new
facilities that make use of advanced production
techniques, and the two have greatly increased
their research and development projects.”
but what will be the effect of the rapid
development of the electric and hybrid
automobile on the hydrocarbon-based fuels
and lubricants industry? Six million people
are actively employed in the petroleum
industry, according to the International Labour
Organization (ILO), but more than 60 million
jobs indirectly depend on that industry. will
electrification create a massive downsizing?
Analysts say that a disastrous change is
unlikely. both the washington, d.C.-based
American petroleum Institute (ApI), and the
brussels-based european petroleum Industry
Association (eurOpIA) said that it was not
possible to quantify the decline in petrol use
based on any given scenario for the increase in
the use of electric and hybrid cars. According
to Margarita Mediavilla, engineering professor
at the university of Valladolid, Spain, even
under the most rapid growth scenarios for
electrification, no vast reduction in oil demand
will occur.
“electric vehicles lead to interesting oil
savings; however, if peak oil is to be avoided,
the savings obtained with electric vehicles or
biofuels are far from being a global solution,”
says Mediavilla.
The pace of change
The general perception that electrification
will be a non-disruptive technology, as far as the
petroleum industry is concerned, says hampton,
is based on four basic ideas:
ƒ Lithium-ion batteries will stay
expensive, with prices declining less than
uS$500/kwh by 2020;
ƒ government support will largely be
limited to r&d, pilot charging projects, vehicle
purchase tax breaks;
ƒ retail purchasers are ecology-minded,
without budget restrictions; dealers sell for full
price;
ƒ expensive public charging
infrastructure is required for uptake; there is
little private profit to be made in construction.
yet, disruptive developments are already
underway in all of these areas, and that could
drive more rapid development, hampton says.
Battery technology is rapidly changing
The price of batteries is already
under pressure. “There are already huge
investments being made in lithium-ion battery
technology,” explains grandin, “which now
clearly seems to be the technology of choice.
There is already tough competition between
battery manufacturers. And, of course, this
is a very immature technology, so there is a
huge potential for improvements in the cost
perspective in the near future.”
researchers at Argonne National
Laboratory, which has a center dedicated to
除了来自法规的压力以外，技术进步也较最初
的预期快许多。“电动化成本最高的部分是电池，
已出现了成本的快速下降和性能的快速提高。”
Irbaris咨询公司伦敦办公室的汽车技术专家David
Hampton解释道。“技术在不断进步，领先的电池
制造商正在与汽车制造商密切合作，投资建设全新
的工厂以充分利用先进生产技术，两者已大幅度增加
了其研究和开发项目。”
但电动汽车和混合动力汽车的快速发展会对烃
基的燃料和润滑油行业产生什么影响？按国际劳工
组织（ILO）的统计，石油行业的就业人口达600万，
但另有超过6000万的间接就业岗位。汽车的电动化
是否会导致行业的萎缩？
分析师认为出现灾难性的变化不太可能。总
部位于华盛顿特区的美国石油协会（API）和总部
位于布鲁塞尔的欧洲石油行业协会（EUROPIA）
认为随着电动汽车和混合动力汽车的使用增加，
在任何情景下都无法量化石油用量下降的程度。按
西班牙Valladolid大学的工程学教授Margarita
Mediavilla所说，即使在最快速的增长情景下，对油
品的需求也不会出现大幅下降。
“电动汽车可以带来省油；但是，如果可以避
免石油需求的顶峰，电动汽车和混合汽车所带来
的节约也不足以成为一个全球性的解决方案。”
Mediavilla说。
变化的速度
Hampton认为，就石油行业而言，电动化不是
一种突破性的技术，其理由有四：
ƒ 锂电池将依然很贵，到2020年，其价格下降
小于500美元/kWh；
ƒ 政府的支持在很大程度上局限于研发，试点
项目，车辆购置税等
ƒ 如果不受预算限制，零售客户的购买电动汽
车主要是出于对生态考虑；经销商是以全价进行销
售的；
ƒ 大面积推广需要昂贵的公共充电基础为支
持；这项建设工作对私营企业来说利润甚微。
然而，这些领域已出现了突破性的发展，并有可
能推动更快速的发展，Hampton说。
电池技术正在快速变化
电池的价格已面临压力。“在锂电池技术上的投
入已经很大，” Grandin解释说，“目前看来是理所
当然的技术选择。电池制造商之间已出现了激励的
竞争。当然，这是一项非常不成熟的技术，因此其成
本在近期内尚有巨大的改善潜力。”
专注于锂电池创新的阿贡国家实验室的研究人
员确认，业内一致认为在电池上将使用该技术。实验
室位于美国伊利诺州芝加哥郊外，是美国能源部最
大的科技研发实验室之一。他们估计全球对电动汽
车电池的需求将很快达到800万公吨，或全球锂的总
产量的四分之三。按Pike Research 估计，2020年
全球锂电池的市场规模将从目前的80亿美元增加到
220亿美元。但有些分析师认为将可能更早达到这个
规模。
美国能源部副部长Jeff Chamberlain说，美国
能源部正在出资成立联合能源存储研究中心，旨在建
立一个美国相关工作的枢纽。他指出，中国和欧盟对
Hybrid
2.1%
Diesel
2.5% Plug In0.1% Full Electric
0.1%
Gas
95.3%
Gas
90.3%
Full
Electric
1.1%
Plug In
1.5%
Diesel
3.5%
Hybrid
3.6%
Full Electric
1.3%
Gas
88.3%
Plug In
1.9%
Diesel
4.4%
Hybrid
4.1%
SOurcE: cItIgrOup glOBal MarkEtS rEpOrt
资料来源：花旗全球市场报告
Sales by powertrain type in 2011
Sales by powertrain type in 2015
Sales by powertrain type in 2020
21 FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL Quarter One 2013