FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL
Quarter Three 2014
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在美国密歇根州底特律召开的SAE世界
大会上，总部位于纽约的康宁公司新兴技
术和法规总监Timothy Johnson向大会提
交了一份报告，对世界范围内与排放标准
同步的主要的法规发展情况、燃料趋势和
新发动机与排放控制技术做了概述。
报告首先对2013年的排放法规发展，
以及未来预期的法规 工作进行了综述。在
2013年，进行中的法规建设工作包括美国
环保署（EPA）轻负荷Tier 3排放标准，及
欧洲轻负荷与实际驾驶排放（RDE）。此
外，中国、印度等国家也正在开展大量的
立法工作，这主要是因为人口激增导致的
对空气质量的关注。
中国人对污染的健康危害认识正在不
断提高，并公开了许多空气质量数据。
因此，人们在关心天气的同时也跟踪空气
质量状况。针对全世界所共认的空气质量
挑战，中国以大量的对汽车排放的控制工
作作出了回应。此外，针对这些挑战，
国际社会也对中国提供了比以往更多的支
持，这包括世界银行和联合国环境计划
（UNEP）。
因此，中国近来在汽车排放法规方面
采取了大量的行动，这包括，但不限于，
国务院制定了清洁燃料计划，要求各主要
地区到2017年底，汽车和柴油燃料的含硫
量最高为10PPM。主要地区的当地法规
则更为激进，要求在2015年实现硫含量
10PPM。北京率先实施了排放标准，已要
求汽油和柴油的硫含量为10PPM。在北
京，2015年1月以后，只有装了柴油颗粒
物过滤器的国五卡车和大巴才能销售。此
外，北京正在考虑在2016年实施加州标准
或美国环保署标准。
在印度，规划委员会受命制定到2025年
的路径图，从2015-16年开始在全国范围
内限制燃料硫含量为50PPM，到2020年限
制硫含量为10PPM。
针对这些不断变化的国际法规环
境，Johnson在SAE大会上的报告对燃料、
发动机开发、柴油氮氧化物排放控制、颗
粒物过滤器、氧化催化剂和汽油气体排放
的最新、和新兴进展提供了一个有用的概
述。
针对燃料，Johnson列举了几个预期中
的发展情况，涉及未来十年及更远的将来
的生产水平、需求、类别和质量。除了全
球生产区域的重大变化以外，燃料生产的
水平也将大幅提高。其中，重大变化之一
是燃料需求的变化，对柴油的需求将超过
汽车排放法规和燃料技术趋势
对于汽车行业而言，在法规不断变化、燃料质量各不相同、市场需求多元化的国际形势之下，排放合规是
一个不断变化的目标。但是，该行业已快速地反应，以极大的努力来开发新的技术以满足这些需求。
作者：
Lacy Rose
专题报道
net natural gas exporter by 2017 and a net
oil exporter by 2035, producing about 6% of
global exports. The region’s exports will be
about 11% of the inter-regional total exports.
Only a decade ago, North America imported
24% of all product imports globally.
This expected production increase should
stabilise oil supply and prices and result in a
better matching of supply and demand over
the next decade or so. The International En-
ergy Agency (IEA) has released projections
of oil production and oil prices through 2035
using three different scenarios that take into
account possible future emissions regula-
tions. In the most aggressive scenario, which
assumes major world policies enacted to
maintain atmospheric CO2 concentrations
at 450 ppm, oil prices will decline by 20%. In
another scenario, which takes into account
new policies that have already been enacted
but not yet implemented, prices will remain
stable with no increase from present rates.
In the third scenario, which reflects policies
currently in place, prices will rise by 20%.
A significant shift in transportation fuel
type is also expected. Worldwide, demand
for gasoline is decreasing in some regions
while demand for distillates (like diesel fuel)
is increasing. Gasoline is used for light-duty
transportation, and even though, according
to the Organization of Economic Coop-
eration and Development (OECD), overall
vehicle miles travelled worldwide is expected
to increase for light-duty transportation,
fuel demand will continue to decrease or,
at the very least, remain flat. The projected
decrease in gasoline demand is mainly at-
tributable to improvements in vehicle fuel
consumption and, to a lesser degree, to
ethanol blending.
Meanwhile, demand for distillate heavy-
duty transportation fuel is projected to
significantly increase because it is used to
move freight and is, therefore, closely as-
sociated with economic growth. The current
demand ratio for distillates to gasoline is 1.5.
Such ratio is projected to increase to 2.0 by
2030 and then to 3.8 by 2050. This shift in
demand may put a stress on refining capac-
ity and cause diesel prices to increase in
comparison to gasoline prices. The expected
increase in distillate prices could shift trans-
portation applications with high-distillate
consumption rates away from diesel and
towards alternative fuels, such as natural gas
and biodiesel.
There is already much development work
being done in this regard, and an abun-
dance of natural gas due to new extraction
methods has been driving such development.
Mining operations, ships and locomotives
are already shifting to liquid natural gas.
Additionally, there is some movement to-
wards natural gas trucks and buses in North
America. Currently, most new North Ameri-
can refuse haulers and many new transit
buses are running on compressed natural gas
(CNG). CNG is a good option because it is
in abundant supply, offers quieter operation,
lower fuel prices and lower tailpipe green-
house gas emissions. One drawback, how-
ever, is its 10-15% lower energy efficiency.
The quality of fuel can also have a huge
impact on vehicle emissions. Johnson dis-
cussed the importance of regulators keeping
up with fuel quality policies. World vehicle
and engine trade associations have published
recommendations (the Worldwide Fuel
Charter) for fuel quality for both gasoline
and diesel fuel for different emissions regu-
latory limits. A new category was added for
markets with more stringent emissions con-
trol and fuel efficiency requirements. In this
new category, the minimum research octane
number (RON) for gasoline was raised to 95.
The category also established a new hydro-
carbon-only specification for diesel fuel,
which takes advantage of the characteristics
of advanced biofuels, such as hydrotreated
vegetable oil (HVO) and Biomass-to-Liquid
(BTL), as long as the resulting blend meets
legislated limits and all other specifications
are respected.
