Page 12 - FLI 2013 - 4th Quarter

FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL Quarter Four 2013 12
ILLUSTRATION BY CHILI DOGS
B A S E O I L C O L U M N
A quarterly in-depth analysis of the global base oil market bywww.baseoilmarket.com
IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2012,
the macroeconomic environment improved
globally although there were large
differences per region. The most important
positive developments for Europe were
the successful restructuring of the Greek
government debt and the unlimited
three-year loans by the European Central
Bank (ECB) to European banks. This has
averted an uncontrolled Greek default
and an escalation of the crisis in other EU
countries such as Italy and Spain, which
would have caused an economic crisis that
would arguably have been worse than the
one in 2008. Meanwhile, the economic
momentum in the U.S. has improved
noticeably in the last few months, with
falling unemployment, rising income and
consumption and renewed confidence
at corporations to invest or buy growth
through acquisitions. China and other
developing economies have been fighting
inflation for several quarters, but are
slowly shifting the focus to growth. Most
developing economies have some fiscal
and monetary leeway to support economic
growth, if necessary.
However, despite these recent
positive macroeconomic developments,
macroeconomic risks remain elevated. On
a global view, most developed economies
in Europe, North America and Japan have
too much debt and will need to deleverage.
This means that economic growth will at
best be lower for the years to come, but the
sovereign debt crisis could easily reignite.
ᄝ2012୍ֻ၂࠱؇đ࣐ܵ۲۱ֹ౵
֥౦ঃႵࢠնҵၳđ֌ሹ֥টඪđಆ౯ޡ
ܴࣜߌ࠶࣢Ⴕ෮ڿ೿b୸ᇝቋᇗေ֥ࠒ
ࠞ෿൝൞Ӯ ۿᇗቆਔ༐ছᆟ کᅏༀđၛ
ࠣ୸ᇝနྛčECBĎཟ୸ᇝ۲ၿྛิ܂ਔ
໭ཋ ح֥೘୍௹վॻbᆃ ࠻х૧ਔ҂ॖ
॥ᇅ֥༐ছິჿअ൝đ္ٝᆸਔః෰୸
ૐࡅݓčೂၩն০a༆ϫ࿩Ďࣜ ࠶າࠏ֥
ശࠩđՖطх૧ਔб 2008 ୍۷ࡆᄦ۝֥
ࣜ࠶າࠏbაՎ๝ൈđૅ ݓ֥ࣜؿ࠶ᅚ൝
๨ᄝݖಀࠫ۱ᄅႵਔૼཁڿ೿ğാြੱ༯
ࢆđ۽ሧބཨٮิۚđ܄ඳ๙ ܓ൬ݖࣉྛ
๧ሧܓࠇ ઙӮӉ྘܄ඳ֥ྐྏ္Ⴕ෮߫
گbᇏݓࠣః෰ ؿᅚᇏ ࡅݓၘࠊ๙ބள
ᅮ׶ᆚਔඔ۱ ࠱؇đ֌གྷᄝ෰ૌતતֹ
Ϝᇿၩ৯ሇ၍֞ਔؿᅚഈbᄝсေൈđն
҆ؿٳᅚᇏࡅݓऎႵᆦӻࣜ ؿ࠶ᅚ֥ҍ
ᆟਲࠃྟࠊބлਲࠃྟb
࣐ܵ࣍௹֥ ޡܴࣜ ࠶Ⴕ ࠒ֥ࠞ ؿ
ᅚđ֌ ޡܴࣜڄ࠶ གಯᄝᄹ ࡆbՖಆ౯
টुđ୸ᇝ ބКૅ֥ն҆ؿٳ ղބࡅݓ
ರЧ׻Ⴕ؟ݖ֥ᅏༀđታླಀۗ߄ۆ bᆃ
ၩ໅ሢໃট୍֥ࠫࣜؿ࠶ᅚ൝с٢ ߏđ
طᇶಃᅏༀາࠏࠞၞЕ ؿbೂ ௮ݔฤ࿩
౨౰ჱᇹđࠇᆀ༐ছ໭੫مྛڿ۪߃࠹đ
ᄵາ ࠏॖିઢ࿼֞ః෰ۚڵᅏࡅݓđಞ
ᆜ۱୸ᇝധཊୃฉbՎຓđۚჰႲࡎ္۬
ॖିቅθࣜ گ࠶ ්đႭః൞֒ᇏתᆟᇍ
अ൝ࣉ၂҄߄ذൈbၹՎđॖၛყ ൧۲࠹
ӆಯࡼթᄝࢠնѯ׮b
ࠎԤႲ൧ӆෛࣜ࠶൝๨ѯ׮
ႮႿޡܴࣜ ࠶ඔऌႵ෮ ڿܴđࣁವ
൧ӆᄝ2ᄅބ3ᄅ֥ࠒࠞ౦࿂ӻ࿃ᆦӪࠎ
ԤႲ൧ӆ֥ഈശ౴൝bᄝֻ၂࠱؇đэ߄
֥܂ႋࢲ ܒࠞնֹ႕ཙሢಆ౯ࠎԤႲ൧ Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
SOURCE:WWW.BASEOILMARKET.COM
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
CFR NE Asia CFR India
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1000
$900
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1000
$900
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1000
$900
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1000
$900
$800
$1700
$1600
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1700
$1600
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)
Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Two 2012
Structural
changes impact
baseoilprices
infirstquarter
ࢲܒྟэ߄႕
ཙሢֻ၂࠱؇֥
ࠎԤႲࡎ۬
seemed to have spurred interest. Prices were offered
at higher levels at the end of July. Buying sentiment
was still mixed though.
Traders searched for opportunities as demand
gradually picked up. Blenders were looking to
rebuild their inventories, even though lubricant
demand remained fragile. Local distributors had
reduced their prices and refineries were operating at
reduced levels.
Black Sea exports were low in July due to
the Turkish Ramadan and the devaluation of the
Turkish Lira, which effectively made base oil more
expensive for Tu kish importers. Baltic/Black
Sea markets started this quarter relatively steady
due to stable European demand and arbitrage
flows to America and Africa. There seemed to
be a firm belief that if European sellers would
lower their offers, the market would probably see
a change in demand. There was strong demand
for SN900, and prices were reported at around
USD1,050 per metric tons (MT) FOB. According to
BaseOilMarket.com, FOB Export Black Sea prices
for the end of July for SN150 ranged fromUSD900
to 920/MT and for SN500 fromUSD905 to 925/
MT.
Russian heavy-grade prices increased in that
period due to firm demand. Buying interest in the
Baltic market was firm, which supported prices.
European base oil prices continued to rise
slowly, but steadily in August and September. The
European Group III domestic market was holding
its ground in the third quarter, but failed to choose
a clear price direction during the quarter. European
buying interest was undergoing a revival, especially
when compared to the very slowmarket in the
previous quarter. Compared to last year though,
prices are still lower due to weak economic growth,
weak demand and difficulty in getting financing.
There remains concern about the impact on base
oil demand if the economic slowdown were to
accelerate.
In the U.S., the quarter started off with eased
prices due to higher imports from the Baltic region.
The expectation of rising prices that has taken hold
among buyers caused their interest to support the
revival in September. On the other hand, exports to
the Indian region were already bei g complicated
by the ris in dom stic and xport pric s during this
period.
Ramadan slowed buying interest in the Middle
East in July. In the beginning of th quart r, prices
were mixed because of pressure from the Russian
region, with sellers offering more cargoes. It was
reported that high-quality base oils origi ating from
the Black Sea were being sold to th UAE. It seems
that a steady fl w f Russ an cargoes is on its way
while the activity toward India has almost fallen
silent due to a sharp drop in the India currency.
By the end of August, prices of Group II base oils
were weaker, probably due to pressure coming from
cheaper Iranian base oils. Due to the monsoon
season, Indian lubricant demand weakened in the
beginning of July. The fact that India’s currency
dropped drastically, with the rupee falling to a
record low, did not help demand.
Asian heavy-grade base oil prices were firm in
July due to tight supply, as several refineries only
offered limited quantities because of scheduled
maintenance at their facilities. According to
BaseOilMarket.com, CFR China prices at the end
of August for SN150 ranged fromUSD975 to 1,015/
MT, for SN500 fromUSD1,110 to 1,160/MT, and
for Bright Stock fromUSD1,220 to 1,260/MT. Asian
base oil prices were quoted higher in August. SN150
was sold on FOB basis in Asia within the range of
USD940-990/MT at the end of August. According
to BaseOilMarket.com, FOB Asia ex-tank prices
in September for SN150 ranged fromUSD1,040 to
1,100/MT, for SN500 fromUSD1,075 to 1,110/MT
and for Bright Stock fromUSD1,195 to 1,250/MT.
Base oil prices stopped falling in the third
quarter, but markets have shown only tentative signs
of recovery. The macroeconomic picture remains
unstable and the future is highly uncertain. The
unpredictable and changing market sentiment have
made most buyers indecisive about their strategy
over the past fewmonths. Market signals have not
been positive so far, but some clarity is expected in
October after the results of the annual peak seasons
in China, India and South America.
康的，但大量依赖外部融资的国家，如土尔其、印
度、巴西，则会因为资金问题而十分脆弱，会不得
不提息以吸引资本，从而阻碍经济增长的过程。
第三季度的首月，基础油市场显得更为平衡。
买方不再要求降价，价格也走出了底部。炼厂的
减产及调合商的恢复库存看似激发了兴趣。七月
底的报价在较高水平。但买方的情绪还是非常复
杂。
随着需求的逐步回升，贸易商开始寻找机会。
虽然需求还是较弱，但调合商希望重建库存。当
地经销商开始降价，炼厂保持减产。
由于土尔其的斋月以及土尔其里拉贬值，七
月份的黑海出口量很低，这使得基础油价格对土
尔其进口商来说变得更贵。由于欧洲的需求稳
定，套利转向美洲和非洲，波罗的海/黑海市场在
本季较为平稳。人们似乎坚信，如果欧洲销售商能
够降价，市场需求就可能发生变化。对SN900的
需求强劲，报道称价格在每吨1050美元（FOB）。
据BaseOilMarket.com报道，七月底，SN150
的黑海出口FOB价在每吨900美元至920美
元，SN500则为每吨905美元至925美元。
由于需求强劲，俄罗斯的重油价格上升。波罗
的海市场的买方兴趣浓厚，支撑了价格。
八、九月份，欧洲基础油价格稳中有升。欧洲
二类油国内市场在第三季度站稳了脚跟，但在本
季内没有显示明确的变动方向。欧洲的买方兴趣
复苏，特别是与第二季度非常低迷的情况相比。
但与去年相比，价格还是偏低，这是因为经济增
长缓慢，需求疲软，融资困难所致。此外，人们还
担心如果经济放缓减速会对基础油的需求产生进
一步影响。
在美国，由于从波罗的海地区的进口增加，季
初价格较低。买方预期价格会上升，因而支撑了九
月价格的回升。另一方面，期间向印度地区的出口
则受国内价格和出口价格的上升而变得复杂。
中东地区，七月是斋月，购买意愿低下。季初
时，由于来自俄罗斯地区的卖方压力而使价格有
升有降。所报道，源自黑海的高质量基础油被售
往阿联酋。似乎俄罗斯的商品正在源源不断地出
口，而向印度方向的贸易则由于印度货币的大幅
下挫而悄无声息。到八月末，二类油的价格更为疲
软，这可能是由于来自印朗低价基础油的压力。由
于台风季节，七月初印度的润滑油需求疲软。事
实上，印度的货币大幅贬值，创出了新低，这对需
求毫无帮助。
由于部分炼厂的计划停工减产使供应
紧张，七月份亚洲重质基础价格坚挺。据
BaseOilMarket.com报道，八月份SN150的CFT
中国价格为每吨975美元至1015美元，SN500为
每吨1110美元至1160美元，光亮油则为每吨1220
美元至1260美元。八月份，亚洲基础油的报价更
高。据BaseOilMarket.com报道，九月份，SN150
亚洲出厂FOB价格为每吨1040美元至1100美
元，SN500为每吨1075美元至1100美元，光亮油
则为每吨1195美元至1250美元。
基础油价格在第三季度止跌，但市场上只看
到试探性的回升信号。宏观经济依然不稳定，未
来存在高度的不确定性。不可预见、变幻莫测的
市场情绪使多数买家对未来数月的策略犹豫不
决。到目前为止，市场信号并不积极，但预计在十
月份中国、印度、南美的年度旺季结果出来后，会
渐趋明朗。
The U.S. central
bank has stimulated
the U.S. economy
by printing huge
amounts of money,
part of which has
flowed into emerging
markets’ assets.
第三季度的全球宏观经济情况复杂。发达
国家出现了今年首次的经济改善迹象，不仅美
国，欧洲也爬出了衰退。许多新兴经济体则出
现了增速放缓，中国首当其冲。虽然中国的经济
放缓部分原因是由于政策制定者为削减系统中
的信贷而有意为之，以便把增长模式从低效的
投资拉动型转型为消费拉动型，但中国经济中
的一些不平衡很难控制。中国经济存在硬着陆
的风险，拖累依赖于中国对大宗商品的需求而
生的其他经济体。这并不是我们的基准情况；
近期的经济数据显示，中国的增长在年均7%左
右的水平企稳。
影响本季经济表现的另一个因素是美联储
决定继续量化宽松的做法，但放缓了速度。美国
央行通过大量印钞来刺激经济，但当中的一部
分流入了新兴市场。现在美国经济开始复苏，联
储必须逐步使其政策正常化以免出现过热和通
胀。但这一进程尚未开始，因为担心这可能会使
利率上升，引发资本从新兴市场撤出，使新兴国
家的资产和货币大幅贬值。这个过程本身是健