Page 10 - FLI 2013 - 4th Quarter

FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL Quarter Four 2013 102
ILLUSTRATION BY CHILI DOGS
B A S E O I L C O L U M N
A quarterly in-depth analysis of the global base oil market bywww.baseoilmarket.com
IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2012,
the macroeconomic environment improved
globally although there were large
differences per region. The most important
positive developments for Europe were
the successful restructuring of the Greek
government debt and the unlimited
three-year loans by the European Central
Bank (ECB) to European banks. This has
averted an uncontrolled Greek default
and an escalation of the crisis in other EU
countries such as Italy and Spain, which
would have caused an economic crisis that
would arguably have been worse than the
one in 2008. Meanwhile, the economic
momentum in the U.S. has improved
noticeably in the last few months, with
falling unemployment, rising income and
consumption and renewed confidence
at corporations to invest or buy growth
through acquisitions. China and other
developing economies have been fighting
inflation for several quarters, but are
slowly shifting the focus to growth. Most
developing economies have some fiscal
and monetary leeway to support economic
growth, if necessary.
However, despite these recent
positive macroeconomic developments,
macroeconomic risks remain elevated. On
a global view, most developed economies
in Europe, North America and Japan have
too much debt and will need to deleverage.
This means that economic growth will at
best be lower for the years to come, but the
sovereign debt crisis could easily reignite.
ᄝ2012୍ֻ၂࠱؇đ࣐ܵ۲۱ֹ౵
֥౦ঃႵࢠնҵၳđ֌ሹ֥টඪđಆ౯ޡ
ܴࣜߌ࠶࣢Ⴕ෮ڿ೿b୸ᇝቋᇗေ֥ࠒ
ࠞ෿൝൞Ӯ ۿᇗቆਔ༐ছᆟ کᅏༀđၛ
ࠣ୸ᇝနྛčECBĎཟ୸ᇝ۲ၿྛิ܂ਔ
໭ཋ ح֥೘୍௹վॻbᆃ ࠻х૧ਔ҂ॖ
॥ᇅ֥༐ছິჿअ൝đ္ٝᆸਔః෰୸
ૐࡅݓčೂၩն০a༆ϫ࿩Ďࣜ ࠶າࠏ֥
ശࠩđՖطх૧ਔб 2008 ୍۷ࡆᄦ۝֥
ࣜ࠶າࠏbაՎ๝ൈđૅ ݓ֥ࣜؿ࠶ᅚ൝
๨ᄝݖಀࠫ۱ᄅႵਔૼཁڿ೿ğാြੱ༯
ࢆđ۽ሧބཨٮิۚđ܄ඳ๙ ܓ൬ݖࣉྛ
๧ሧܓࠇ ઙӮӉ྘܄ඳ֥ྐྏ္Ⴕ෮߫
گbᇏݓࠣః෰ ؿᅚᇏ ࡅݓၘࠊ๙ބள
ᅮ׶ᆚਔඔ۱ ࠱؇đ֌གྷᄝ෰ૌતતֹ
Ϝᇿၩ৯ሇ၍֞ਔؿᅚഈbᄝсေൈđն
҆ؿٳᅚᇏࡅݓऎႵᆦӻࣜ ؿ࠶ᅚ֥ҍ
ᆟਲࠃྟࠊބлਲࠃྟb
࣐ܵ࣍௹֥ ޡܴࣜ ࠶Ⴕ ࠒ֥ࠞ ؿ
ᅚđ֌ ޡܴࣜڄ࠶ གಯᄝᄹ ࡆbՖಆ౯
টुđ୸ᇝ ބКૅ֥ն҆ؿٳ ղބࡅݓ
ರЧ׻Ⴕ؟ݖ֥ᅏༀđታླಀۗ߄ۆ bᆃ
ၩ໅ሢໃট୍֥ࠫࣜؿ࠶ᅚ൝с٢ ߏđ
طᇶಃᅏༀາࠏࠞၞЕ ؿbೂ ௮ݔฤ࿩
౨౰ჱᇹđࠇᆀ༐ছ໭੫مྛڿ۪߃࠹đ
ᄵາ ࠏॖିઢ࿼֞ః෰ۚڵᅏࡅݓđಞ
ᆜ۱୸ᇝധཊୃฉbՎຓđۚჰႲࡎ္۬
ॖିቅθࣜ گ࠶ ්đႭః൞֒ᇏתᆟᇍ
अ൝ࣉ၂҄߄ذൈbၹՎđॖၛყ ൧۲࠹
ӆಯࡼթᄝࢠնѯ׮b
ࠎԤႲ൧ӆෛࣜ࠶൝๨ѯ׮
ႮႿޡܴࣜ ࠶ඔऌႵ෮ ڿܴđࣁವ
൧ӆᄝ2ᄅބ3ᄅ֥ࠒࠞ౦࿂ӻ࿃ᆦӪࠎ
ԤႲ൧ӆ֥ഈശ౴൝bᄝֻ၂࠱؇đэ߄
֥܂ႋࢲ ܒࠞնֹ႕ཙሢಆ౯ࠎԤႲ൧ Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
SOURCE:WWW.BASEOILMARKET.COM
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
CFR NE Asia CFR India
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1000
$900
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1000
$900
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1000
$900
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1000
$900
$800
$1700
$1600
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
$1700
$1600
$1500
$1400
$1300
$1200
$1100
Q2 2011 - Q1 2012 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)
Apr May Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Two 2012
Structural
changes impact
baseoilprices
infirstquarter
ࢲܒྟэ߄႕
ཙሢֻ၂࠱؇֥
ࠎԤႲࡎ۬
The globalmacroeconomic picturewasmixed inthe thirdquarter.
For the first time in years, signs of impr vement were coming out of developed economies, and
not only in the U.S. Europe slowly crawled out of recession, as well. Many emerging economies,
on the her hand, wer showing sig s of decelerating growth, led by China. While the slowdown
in China is at least artly a conscious choice of policy makers to remove excess credit from the
system a d shift ts growth mod l fr m less productive investments to consumption, some
structural imbalance in the Chinese econ my can be hard to control. There is a risk that the
Chinese economy w ll experience a h r landing, dragging economies dependent on Chinese
demand for commodities and oth r products down with it. This is not our base case; recent
economic data p int at China’s growth stabilizing at above 7% per year.
An ther factor this quarter was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to continue quantitative
easing, but at a tapered rate. The U.S. central b nk has stimulated the U.S. economy by printing
huge mounts of mon y, p rt f which has flowed into emerging markets’ assets. Now that
the U.S. economy is recovering, the Federal Reserve has to gradually normalize its policy to
avoid overheating and inflation. While this process has not yet started, fears of its effect have
caused rates to rise and emerging markets’ assets and currencies to fall sharply as capital was
withdrawn from these markets in large amounts. While this process of normalization is in itself
healthy, countries that depend heavily on external financing, such as Turkey, India and Brazil,
are vulnerable if financing becomes a problem and rates have to rise to attract capital, stifling
economic growth in the process.
Base oil markets in general appeared to be more balanced in the first month of the third
quarter. Buyers were no longer demanding discounts as they had done previously and prices
appeared to have bottomed out. The production cuts by refineries and re-stocking by blenders
作者：Jeroen Looye
The road to
normalization
may be bumpy
正常化的道路坎坷
$800.00
$850.00
$900.00
$950.00
$1,000.00
$1,050.00
$1,100.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
$/MT
4 2 - Q3 2013 Base Oil SN500
FOBExportEurope
FOBExportMidEast
FOBExportAsia
FOBExportBaltic
$800.00
$850.00
$900.00
$950.00
$1,000.00
$1,050.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
$/MT
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 Base Oil SN150
FOBExportEurope
FOBExportMidEast
FOBExportAsia
FOBExportBaltic
$900.00
$950.00
$1,000.0
$1,050.00
$1,100.00
$1,150.00
$1,200.00
$1,250.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
$/MT
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 Base Oil BS150 prices
FOBExportEurope
FOBExportMidEast
FOBExportAsia
$800.00
$850.00
$900.00
$950.00
$1,000.00
$1,050.00
$1,100.00
$1,150.00
$1,200.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
$/MT
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 Base Oil SN500
CFR India
CFRNEAsia
$880.00
$900.00
$920.0
$940.00
$960.00
$980.00
$1,000.00
$1,020.00
$1,040.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
$/MT
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 Base Oil SN150
CFR India
CFRNEAsia
$1,000.00
$1,050.00
$1,100.00
$1,150.00
$1,200. 0
$1,250.00
$1,300.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
$/MT
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 Base Oil BS150 prices
CFR India
CFRNEAsia
4 2 3 3 SN500
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 SN150
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 BS150
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 SN500
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 SN150
Q4 2012 - Q3 2013 BS150