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Fuels & Lubes International Quarter Two 2016
或快递。燃料电池汽车的加氢时间更短，可适
用于中、长距离。混合电动汽车和插电式纯电
动汽车具有“良好的性能和与常规动力相同的
便利性”，适用于所有移动性。对于现有汽车一
样，Sugiyama说，“不用说，对每种环境提供最
佳的动力系统非常重要。”
燃料以及车队需要不断进行多元化。近期
内燃机还将是主流，Sugiyama预测常规燃料
也将在近期占主导地位。他指出，常规石油的
供应将在2040年左右开始下降，但其他类型
的燃料，如油砂和致密油，将增加，使总的供
应增加。
“提高常规内燃机的热效率是短期挑战，”他
说，“二氧化碳零排放汽车的普及是中期挑战。”
他提到在2015年的第四代Prius上，丰田的最
高热效率达到了40%。热效率是提高燃料经济
性的一个关键要素。
转动系统的发展已具有多种速度，由此，
Sugiyama指出连续可变传动（CVT）将更多地
用来提高燃料效率。
对有些人而言，氢似乎是完美的解决方案，
因为它储量丰富，在燃料电池中使用时，只排
放出水蒸汽和空气。但是，今天大部分的氢气
是化石燃料炼制过程中作为副产品收集的，所
以问题是这种清洁的能源是否实际上依附于
一种脏的能源而生。到2035年，Sugiyama说，
丰田预见了一种能源网，由多种能源共存，相
互进行优化。
丰田把它称为“HyGrid”，一种混合动力网，
其中有化石燃料、电力、氢能和替代能源，如太
阳能、风能、生物质能等。除了汽车以外，其它
所有能源也需要多元化，包括家庭用能。“这个
概念，”Sugiyama说，“预见了混合动力网结合
了电力和氢能。例如，各地多余的发电量和时
间可以转化为氢能，然后以最低损失再转换为
电能。”但是，他说：“化石燃料还将在未来数十
年中占主导。”
Sugiyama强调了在向低碳未来发展过程
中，不同部门（政府、学术界、油品行业和汽
车业）之间合作的重要性。他举了日本战略创
新促进项目（SIP）的例子，这是一个在2014
年由科学技术创新理事会发起的跨部委项
目。SIP有10个研究项目。每个项目的负责人在
促进行业、学术界和政府的合作中起着关键作
用。Sugiyama是创新燃烧技术项目的负责人，
其目标是将内燃机的热效率从目前的40%提
高到50%。
SIP下的其他项目还包括下一代动力电子、能
源存储（为了使氢成为更主流的能源）和自动
驾驶系统。日本的模式还刚刚开始，但有可能
向世界提供一些借鉴，以实现低碳经济。
and tight oil, will increase, contribut-
ing to an overall increase in supply.
“Further improvement of thermal
efficiency in the conventional inter-
nal combustion engine is the short-
term challenge,” he said, “and the
popularisation of zero-CO
2
emission
vehicles is the mid-term challenge.”
He mentioned that with the 4th
generation Prius in 2015, Toyota
reached 40% maximum thermal
efficiency. Thermal efficiency is one
of the key ingredients to improving
fuel economy.
Transmissions have evolved to
have many more speeds, and with
this, Sugiyama predicted that contin-
uously variable transmissions (CVT)
will see more use in the effort to
gain fuel efficiency.
To some, hydrogen seems like
the perfect solution because it is so
abundant and, when used in a fuel
cell, emits only water vapor and
air. However, much of the hydrogen
today is collected as a byproduct of
fossil fuel refineries, so the question
is whether this clean form of energy
actually depends on a dirtier one.
Moving toward 2035, Sugiyama said
Toyota envisions an energy grid in
which multiple energy sources work
together, optimising each other.
Toyota calls its vision a “HyGrid,”
a hybrid power grid in which there
is a place for fossil fuels, electricity,
hydrogen and alternative energy
sources like solar, wind and bio-
based sources. Beyond the vehicle
fleet, all sources of energy need
to be diversified, including those
in people’s homes. “This concept,”
Sugiyama said, “envisions the hybrid
power grid that combines electricity
with hydrogen. For example, sur-
plus electricity generated at various
locations and times can be converted
into hydrogen and then re-converted
into electricity with minimal losses.”
However, he said, “fossil fuels will still
be mainstream for a few decades.”
Sugiyama emphasised the im-
portance of collaboration between
different agencies (namely govern-
ment, academia, oil industry and
auto industry) in moving towards a
low-carbon future. He offered an ex-
ample of Japan’s Strategic Innova-
tion Promotion Program (SIP), which
is a cross-ministerial program
started by the Council of Science,
Technology and Innovation in 2014.
SIP has 10 research programs. The
director of each program plays a
central role in promoting collabo-
ration among industry, academia
and government. Sugiyama is the
director of the Innovative Combus-
tion Technology program, one goal
of which is to improve maximum in-
ternal combustion thermal efficiency
from the current 40% up to 50%.
Some of the other programs under
SIP include Next-Generation Power
Electronics, Energy Carriers (which
focuses on making hydrogen more
mainstream as an energy source)
and Automated Driving System.
Japan’s model is young, but perhaps
can offer some guidelines to the
rest of the world on how to achieve a
low-carbon economy.
“Further improvement of thermal efficiency in
the conventional internal combustion engine is
the short-term challenge, and the popularisation
of zero-CO
2
emission vehicles is themid-term
challenge.”
“提高常规内燃机的热效率是短期挑战，”他说，
“二氧化碳零排放汽车的普及是中期挑战。”
