FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL
Quarter Two 2015
48
BUT THE CHINESE POLICY
of one child per family that
was implemented in 1979 has
resulted in its population being
about 400 million less than
it could have been. This has
produced the worst combination
for economic growth: a decline
in the working-age group, along
with a rise in the elderly. Over-
all, senior citizens will increase
by 60% in China by 2025, while
those working will drop by 35%.
This will result in a decline of 1%
in China’s gross domestic prod-
uct. It will also hinder China’s
transformation to a consumer
economy for two major reasons:
There will be 400 million fewer
consumers; and more will be in
the oldest demographic, who are
not buying new cars and new
houses, rather than in the group
with the most spending power.
Meanwhile, India’s economic
growth is being hindered by
government policy, but in a dif-
ferent arena. India’s population
is anticipated to reach 1.7 billion
by 2050, with China’s remaining
at 1.3 billion. The population of
India will also be younger. In
2040, it is estimated that China’s
mean age will be 46, compared to
34 in India, meaning there will be
more consumers in India who are
younger. That should translate
to more homes being built and
personal vehicles being bought.
But political considerations,
along with the investment in in-
frastructure and manufacturing
CHINA AND INDIA
OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE GLOBAL
DEMOGRAPHICS CONUNDRUM
DUE TO THE
SIZE OF THEIR
POPULACE AND
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT (GNP),
BOTH CHINA AND
INDIA LEAVE A
HUGE FOOTPRINT
IN THE WORLD’S
WHOLESALE
COMMODITIES
MARKET.
By Jonathan Yates
G U E S T C O L U M N
