Page 39 - Fuels & Lubes International 2013 - Q1
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SOURCE:
$800
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Q1 - Q4 2012 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic
$800
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Q1 - Q4 2012 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic
$800
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Q1 - Q4 2012 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East
$800
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Q1 - Q4 2012 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
$800
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Q1 - Q4 2012 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
$1500
$1600
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Q1 - Q4 2012 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
“Buyers seemed
unwilling to buy
anything other than
at fire-sale prices. ”
In October, the Chinese market remained
weak and few cargoes were offered. downstream
buyers preferred to purchase from local
producers in small quantities and avoided
keeping sizable inventories. In November, base
oil prices in China weakened even further.
prices suffered due to a lack of demand for both
base oils and lubricants. Some refineries and
distributors reduced prices further to attract
buyers, but without much success. buyers
seemed unwilling to buy anything other than at
fire-sale prices. domestic base oil prices reached
CNy8,550/Mt (uS$1,369/Mt) for SN150,
CNy9,000/Mt (uS$1,441/Mt) for SN400 and
CNy10,600/Mt (uS$1,697/Mt) for bS150.
Surplus inventories and a sluggish lubricant
market softened demand for imported base oil.
The Chinese market stabilized in
december; prices also reached bottom.
production cuts and re-stocking by blenders
spurred buying interest. prices being offered
were higher by the end of december; however,
buying sentiment was still mixed. Some blenders
were speculating and trying to benefit from
year-end sales. Others believe, however, that
prices will continue to fall until the Lunar New
year in February.
by the end of the fourth quarter, base
oil prices slowed down in europe and some
markets in Southeast Asia, while other markets
stabilized. The selling pressure brought upon
by sellers dumping inventories should abide in
January. Thus, it is expected that prices should
bottom out soon. demand for base oils should
increase gradually in 2013, restoring balance
between supply and demand, and laying the
foundation for a market recovery.
炼厂的开工率也很低。由于买家情绪低弱，印尼
炼厂PT Pertamina没有对12月发货的10500
公吨的需求投标。
10月份时，中国市场疲弱，无货。下游买家
希望从本地生产商手品少量拿货以保持相当
的库存。到了11月份，中国的基础油市场进一
步疲软。由于缺乏对基础油和润滑油的需求使
价格受挫。部分炼厂和经销商降价吸引买家，
但并不成功。买家仅对清仓价感兴趣。国内基
础油价格低至SN150每公吨8550元（1369美
元），SN400每公吨9000元（1441美元），
BS150每公吨10600元（1697美元）。多余的
库存和疲软的润滑油市场导致对进口基础油的
需求也十分疲软。
中国市场于12月企稳；价格也触底。减产
和调合厂重建库存刺激了买家的兴趣。12月底
报价略升；但买家的情绪依然复杂。有些调合
厂在观望，希望能从年底清仓中得到好处。另
一些则认为价格在春节之前将继续下滑。
到四季度末，欧洲和东南亚部分市场的基
础油价格放缓，另一些市场则企稳。卖家清库
所带来的销售压力将持续到1月。因此，预计价
格将很快触底反弹。2013年，基础油的需求将
逐步回升，供需恢复平衡，为市场的复苏打好
基础。
Argus European Base Oils Markets 2013
21 March, Istanbul, Turkey
Petroleum
argusmedia.com/euro-baseoils
illuminating the markets
Sup
avail
bseoiladvertFL.indd 1
14/11/2012 11:15:34
39
FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL
Quarter One 2013
