Page 38 - Fuels & Lubes International 2013 - Q1
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was justified by low valuations; but the rally in
already very expensive government bonds shows
that investors remain unconvinced that all
major risks have been brought under control.
europe remains stuck in a recession and
the situation is expected to persist for the next
few quarters. however, growth in the euro area
during the third quarter proved to be somewhat
surprising. The sense of crisis increased during
the last quarter of 2012 due to the stalled and
the continued lack of ability, and willingness
among policy makers to address the root cause
of the crisis. greece remained a painful example
that harsh austerity measures without sufficient
economic reform is a dead end.
In the u.S., the picture looks somewhat
better at year-end, with the housing market
displaying signs of recovery and the falling
unemployment rate, although this is partly due
to people no longer searching for work; people
who do so are not counted in the unemployment
figures. In China, fears of a hard landing have
abated and the bottom of the cycle appears to
have been reached in the last quarter of 2012.
In the fourth quarter of 2012, activity
in both the domestic and the export base oil
market in europe was low, adding pressure
on already thin base oil refining margins.
Therefore, european refineries were likely to
keep production rates low to limit supply. buyers
expected prices to decline in europe due to the
usual seasonal effect in december, when refiners
tend to drawdown their inventories during the
end of the year.
Most european producers were looking
to export their surplus inventories out of the
european region, but demand from importing
countries remained sluggish and buyers were
not in a hurry to purchase large volumes, as they
waited for prices to bottom out.
baltic and black Sea prices dropped
by uS$25 per metric ton (Mt) by the end
of November 2012, due to lack of buying
interest from major importing regions, like
europe, turkey and west Africa. According to
baseOilMarket.com, SN150 and SN500 were
offered at uS$925/Mt and uS$935/Mt FOb
baltic, respectively, for November shipment.
In europe, domestic prices declined further
in december, dropping uS$40/Mt for lighter
grades and uS$50/Mt for heavier grades. Some
producers and distributors followed reluctantly,
reducing prices by a lesser amount.
The Asian market was stable in the
beginning of the fourth quarter but few deals
were closed. buyers were cautious due to weak
domestic demand in most countries.
The Asian base oil market weakened in
November and most distributors and refineries
encountered difficulties clearing inventories.
buying sentiment was very pessimistic. even
buyers who were looking to profit from lower
prices remained cautious and only bought what
they needed for that period.
Asian base oil prices decreased further after
the second price cut from a major producer.
prices were reduced by uS$50/Mt for group I
and by uS$40/Mt for group II.
by the end of the fourth quarter, the Asian
market started to settle; only minor price
reductions in FOb prices of SN150 and bS150
were made to trigger last-minute sales. traders
searched for opportunities as demand was
gradually picking up. blenders were looking to
rebuild their inventories, even though lubricant
demand was still fragile. Local distributors
had reduced their prices and refineries were
operating at reduced levels. Indonesian refiner
pt pertamina did not issue a tender for 10,500
Mt for december shipment as buying sentiment
was low.
“The Chinese
market stabilized in
December; prices also
reached bottom. ”
>> “Is recovery on the way?”
cont. from page 6
>>
“是否已在复苏？”
上接第6页
在美国，年底时情况略显光明。住房市场出现了
复苏的迹象，失业率下降，这部分是因为有人停止了
找工作的结果，这些人是不计入失业率的。在中国，对
硬着陆的担心已经平息，2012年第四季度已经触底。
在2012年第四季度，欧洲的国内和出口基础油
市场均不活跃，给已经很低的基础油炼厂的毛利又增
加了压力。因此，欧洲炼厂有可能保持较低的开工率
以限制供应。欧洲的买家由于传统的12月份的季节
规律预计价格将进一步下降，通常此时炼厂会在年底
压库存。
大部分的欧洲生产商期望把多余的库存出口到
欧洲以外地区，但进口国的需求依旧低迷，买家也不
急于大量采购，他们也在等待价格触底。
由于诸如欧洲、土尔其和西非等主要进口国的
买方意愿低弱，波罗的海和黑海的价格每公吨下降
了25美元。按BaseOilMarket.com报价，SN150和
SN500的11月份的报价仅为每公吨925美元和935
美元，FOB波罗的海。
在欧洲，国内价格在12月进一步下滑，轻质油每
公吨下降了40美元，重质油则下降了50美元。部分生
产商和经销商勉强跟进，稍稍降价。
亚洲市场在季初保持稳定，但交易甚少。由于多
数国家的国内需求疲软，买家十分谨慎。
亚洲基础油市场在11月份疲软，大多数经销商
和炼厂遇到了清库的困难。买方的情绪十分悲观。甚
至希望从更低价格中获利的买家也十分谨慎，仅采购
了当季所需的量。
亚洲基础油价格在主要生产商第二次大幅降价
后又一次下降。一类油的价格每公吨下降了50美元，
二类油则下降了40美元。
到四季度末，亚洲市场企稳；SN150和BS150的
FOB价仅有小幅下降以触发交易。随着需求的回升，
贸易商开始寻找机会。调合厂正在考虑重建库存，虽
然润滑油的需求依然十分脆弱。当地经销商已降价，
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FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL
Quarter One 2013
38
