Page 6 - Fuels & Lubes International Q2 2013
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2013年初，原油价格因地缘政治紧张、政
府开支缩减预期而上升。围绕伊朗的事态没有取
得进展，使原油价格中的风险溢价上升。经合组
织国家和非经合组织国家的库存下降速度快于预
期，为原油价格提供了基本面的支撑。结合一些
新的供应中断，这就为原油价格创造了一个上升
的环境。
在2013年最初的几个月，对基础油的估值
比对原油的估值更具吸引力，对炼制产品的估也
有利。在基础油市场和润滑油市场，供应量缩
减，需求将在某个时点恢复，特别是当经济活动
增加时。
从宏观经济角度看，基础油市场应该从逐步
增加的经济活动中获益。然而，这个过程中的起
伏将延缓需求的复苏。
在2013年最初的几周内，一类基础油市场
依旧稳定。过剩的货物已被出清。同时，二类基
础油的价格有些压力，由于需求低迷和过多的库
存，价格较低。亚洲的需求开始缓慢增加，大多
数买家正在看二月份的交货以满足其在三、四月
份的要求。年初的假期也减缓了基础油的需求。
2013年初，从波罗的地区运到俄罗斯的基
础油价格每吨上升了15美元。当几家生产商宣
布一月份将减产后，贸易商对一月底发运的，价
格为每吨875美元小宗交易感兴趣。供应变紧将
CRUDE oIL PRICES RoSE IN THE
beginning of 2013 due to increasing geopolitical
tensions, the expectation of lower government
spending. Geopolitical developments focused
around Iran showed little signs of progress,
increasing the geopolitical risk premium of crude
oil prices. Inventories were drawn at a faster than
expected rate in both oECD and non-oECD
countries, providing fundamental support for
crude oil prices. Combined with some new
supply outages, this resulted in a constructive
environment for crude oil prices.
The attractive valuation of base oil
compared to crude oil and refined products was
positive for base oil prices in the initial months
of 2013. Supply has been reduced, and demand
has to recover at some point, in base oil markets
as well as in lubricant markets, especially when
economic activity picks up.
From a macroeconomic perspective, base
oil markets should profit from a gradual increase
in economic activity. However, several bumps
along the way could prolong base oil demand
recovery.
In the initial weeks of 2013, the Group
a supply-driven
first quarter
受供应驱动的第一季度
B A S E O I L C O L UMN
基础油专栏
a quarterly in-depth analysis of the global base oil market by
作者： Jeroen Looye
“A supply-driven...” continued on
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SOURCE:
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
$1500
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Q2 2012 - Q1 2013 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
$1500
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Q2 2012 - Q1 2013 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
$1500
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Q2 2012 - Q1 2013 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)
FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
$1500
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Q2 2012 - Q1 2013 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
$1500
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Q2 2012 - Q1 2013 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
$1500
$1600
$1700
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Q2 2012- Q1 2013 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)
CFR NE Asia CFR India
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
FUELS & LUBES INTERNATIONAL
Quarter Two 2013
6
