Asia's CO2 emissions from road transport to double in seven years

Asia’s CO2 emissions from road transport rise faster than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and are expected to double, in the next seven years, a new study by Manila-based Clean Air Asia found. Emissions from electricity grow at about the same rate as GDP and will double in 15 years. Road transport and electricity are major sources of CO2 emissions in Asia, emitting 5.26 billion tons of CO2 per year.
GDP grew 8% from 2002-2010, but road transport emissions in Asia grew annually at 10.1% during the same period, with transport emissions in China growing at a rate of 13.4%. The increase in transport emissions is line with an annual increase of 11.5% in the number of vehicles in developing Asia. Electricity consumption per person in China increased by 11% and in Vietnam by 18%, compared to 6% for Asia.
Singapore demonstrated that it is possible to reduce the emission intensity through energy efficiency programs and policies that curb private vehicle ownership and use.
“Transport in Asia will have to change course to avert dangerous climate change,” said Sophie Punte, executive director of Clean Air Asia. “There are proven policies and technologies that can help decouple the growth of CO2 emissions in the transport sector from economic growth. The window of opportunity to implement low carbon transport policies is closing fast,” she said.
The study presented at the Better Air Quality 2012 conference in Hong Kong provides policy makers in Asia with better access to reliable data on transport, energy and urban development, and can help in the planning, implementation and monitoring of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). The Clean Air Asia study was supported by the World Bank and other development agencies and international research institutes. The study included 13 Asian countries, covering 95% of Asia’s population and 89% of the region’s GDP.
Future emissions of Particulate Matter or PM emissions, the main air pollutant from a health perspective, were more difficult to estimate due to lack of information, especially on the speed and scale that emission abatement technologies will be adopted. Information released by Clean Air Asia at the BAQ 2012 conference highlighted the deterioration of air quality in Asian cities with 70% of cities not meeting the most relaxed World Health Organization guideline value for PM10.
“Given the fast growing economies of many Asian countries, easily accessible data on air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions for two high emitting sectors presents a valuable set of indicators to key stakeholders working on development in Asia,” said Mary Barton Dock, director of the World Bank’s Climate Policy and Finance Department.
Coal continues to dominate as the main electricity source at 70% and contributes to 91% of CO2 emissions from power generation. The use of non-fossil fuels doubled since 2000, but its share remains small at 19%. Although Asia’s per capita electricity consumption at 1501 kWh is still well below the OECD average of 8,483 kWh per capita, Asia is starting to close the gap, with an average 6% annual growth rate in electricity use since 2000. Most countries have adopted targets for renewable energy; if these targets will be met and gradually made more ambitious, this could slow down the increase in CO2 emissions from electricity generation, according to Clean Air Asia.
Of the 460 million vehicles plying Asia’s roads, two-thirds are motorbikes and these contribute to only 10% of CO2 emissions. “Trucks make up only 9% of Asia’s vehicle population but are responsible for 54% of CO2 emissions from road transport,” said Punte. “This is one of the reasons China has launched a national green freight program to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions from trucks.” (December 6, 2012)