Shell sees over 50% global LNG demand growth on China, Asian drivers

Shell released an outlook on February 14th projecting liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand to rise over 50% by 2040, propelled by China’s industrial coal switching and Southeast Asian economic growth.

The 2024 LNG Outlook builds on the 404 million tonnes of global LNG trade in 2023. Industrial emissions cuts in steel and other sectors are expected to position China as the leader in LNG import growth this decade.

Longer term into the 2030s, declining domestic supplies across South and Southeast Asia may spark surging LNG demand for power and manufacturing needs if import infrastructure can be developed.

LNG has already helped European nations diversify from Russian pipeline reliance for energy security. Global prices and volatility eased in 2023 but remain well above historical averages with structural tightness.

“Gas has an essential role supporting the urgent shift from coal as one of the world’s largest emissions sources,” said Shell Executive Vice President Steve Hill. The opportunity exists for nations to balance variable renewable power with flexible gas plants.

Shell continues to see robust, long-term LNG fundamentals even as gas peaks in some developed regions. The 2024 reference outlook forecasts up to 685 million tonnes of global annual LNG trade possible by 2040.

Shell is a global integrated energy and petrochemicals company operating across oil, gas, power, renewables, hydrogen and more. Shell aims to deliver energy responsibly and accelerate the global energy transition.