U.S. study predicts future for U.S. as no. 2 economy, but also as energy independent

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) released a new intelligence assessment of global trends. The report says that before 2030, China will pass the United States as the leading economic power. America, however, will continue to be an indispensable world leader, powered in part by an era of energy independence.
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the center for mid-term and long-term strategic thinking of the United States Intelligence Community (IC). Mathew Burrows, chief author and manager of the project and counselor for the National Intelligence Council, said the 166-page report had been presented in advance to groups of academic experts, business leaders and government officials, and local intelligence officers in more than 20 countries.
NIC predicts that the clout of Russia and the economic strength of other countries dependent on oil for revenues will wane. ”There will not be any hegemonic power,” the report says. ”Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.”
The report anticipates the growth of the global middle class that will be better educated and will have wider access to healthcare and communications technologies such as the Internet and smartphones. According to the report, “the growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift.” It states that billions of people will climb out of poverty. ”For the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world,” the study says.
Even as the NIC predicts an upturn in the social status of billions of people, it also warns that half of the world’s population would probably be living in areas that will have severe shortages of fresh water, reiterating that management of natural resources would be a crucial concern of global national security efforts.
Aside from other warnings, the study also presents some important ”game changers,” as it acknowledges that the future ”is malleable.” It also presents the best-case situation for global security until 2030, which would be a growing political partnership between the United States and China. (December 11, 2012)