Study on global supply and demand trends for petrochemical products

A study on the trends in the global demand and supply of petrochemical products, including aromatic products, ethylene derivatives, and propylene derivatives up to 2016 has been completed by the Study Group on Global Supply and Demand Trends for Petrochemical Products. The study group is managed by the Chemical Division of Japan’s Manufacturing Industries Bureau and the study brought into focus the following trends:

• There is notable demand growth in Asia, particularly in China and India, despite the impact of the global economic slowdown and the continually increasing prices of crude oil and petroleum products. Plans for new and additional facilities in the Middle East, China, and India are continuously being developed. Trends in the Asian market are increasingly influencing the worldwide market.
• There was excess supply of ethylene derivatives, which peaked in 2008 to about 2.5 million tons. Supply and demand moved toward equilibrium thereafter, based upon the increase in demand, but the supply is expected to fall short in the future. The excess supply of propylene derivatives are expected to peak at about 4.9 million tons in 2012. The excess supply is expected to gradually decrease in direct relation to the increases in demand.
• In the short term, there will be an excess of supply over demand of petrochemical products. Excess supply is expected to diminish and move toward equilibrium in the long run, but possible changes in the situation could occur due to world economic trends and the progress of plant expansion. At present there are continuous trends of production increases in the Middle East, China and India; and there are demand increases in China and India, but the changes in the regional economy have greater impact on supply and demand trends all over the world and this should be given attention.

(June 5, 2012)