Shell marks 40 years of scenario planning

Forty years ago, in 1972, work began on what many people consider the first Shell Scenarios document; the paper was published the following year though the roots of this work lie even further in the past. Since then, scenario planning has been at the core of Shell’s business, helping senior company leaders understand the critical factors in the business environment, and identify the possible directions to take.
Scenario planning is credited for the many key decisions at Shell that enabled it to effectively deal with world trends, discontinuities, and eventualities and most importantly, maintain continuity through even the most turbulent of times. This methodology, which has been adapted by other organizations and many individuals worldwide, has enabled Shell to create and apply different scenarios to anticipated global and local economic, social and political changes that could affect its business. Scenario planners are now looking to the future by developing new work strategies that need to be used in a more complex modern world. Scenario planning provides clear insights through the “zooming in and zooming out” method: zooming in on specific details, and then zooming out to give a broader perspective.
For its next iteration, Shell will be publishing “40 Years of Shell Scenarios,” scheduled for release in early 2013; the document will focus on areas that concern the development of energy and environmental systems in the 21st century, the connection between energy, water and food systems and the impact of growing global urbanization. (November 19, 2012)