IEA slashes prediction for fourth quarter global runs

The International Energy Agency said that global refinery crude runs in the fourth quarter of 2011 will be significantly lower than the previous forecast. In its monthly report, the IEA slashed its prediction for fourth quarter global runs to an average of 75.1 million barrels a day, 250,000 barrels a day lower than its October forecast. However, the new forecast is still 450,000 barrels a day higher than the reported runs in the same period last year. Third quarter runs reached 75.5 million barrels a day, 30,000 barrels a day lower than IEA’s forecast. The lower production forecast took into consideration the delays in the resumption of operations in big refineries in Singapore and Taiwan, which had emergency shutdowns. The planned shutdown of Taiwan’s Mailiao refinery was also considered. The IEA also said that it does not expect new capacity in India to fully come online until the second quarter of next year. Meanwhile, U.S. runs fell in October, although refinery runs on the Gulf Coast improved in the absence of hurricanes which used to cause shutdowns in the region. (November 10, 2011)