Goldman Sachs predicts 12% drop in China’s heavy-duty truck market

China’s heavy-duty truck (HDT) market will drop 12.4% to 850,000 units this year because of a weaker GDP, according to a Goldman Sachs (GS) forecast. Aside from a weaker GDP outlook caused by an unexpected dip in demand, GS also cited dealer destocking and an unfavorable regulatory environment as main reasons for the decline. Sales could pick up in the last quarter of this year if China loosens up its macro-policy, the firm added. “We think volumes might pick up in 4Q11, if macro policy is loosened in 2H11 and due to a possible front-loading effect before stricter fuel efficiency and emission standards become effective in January 2012.”  (June 7, 2011)