Freedonia predicts 2.6% growth in world lubricants demand

World demand for lubricants will rise by approximately 2.6% annually to 41.7 million metric tons in 2015, according to the Freedonia Group, driven primarily by strong economic growth as countries continue to recover from the impact of the global economic recession in 2009. The fastest growth will occur in Asia, followed by Africa and the Middle East, and Central and South America. In addition to strong economic growth, all three of these regions will benefit from above-average increases in their motor vehicle industy Healthy advances in Eastern Europe will reflect a rebound in the region’s industrial output. These and other trends are presented in World Lubricants, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland, Ohio, U.S.A.-based industry market research firm. Motor vehicles are the largest market for lubricants, and growth will be led by strong gains in the developing Asian countries due to rapid expansion of the motor vehicle industry, particularly in China and India. However, the trend toward increased drain intervals, influenced in part by the growing availability of superior, high-performance synthetic lubricants, will result in declining demand in Western Europe and North America. The fastest growth in lubricant demand through 2015 will be in manufacturing and other markets. The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, will continue to be the primary driver of growth in these markets due to companies worldwide pursuing the region’s key advantages of relatively low labor costs and political stability. In terms of product types, engine oils will continue to account for the greatest share of lubricant demand going forward, reflecting the importance of transportation in an increasingly global economy. Hydraulic fluids will post the fastest growth due to a combination of increased demand in manufacturing operations and strong global growth in natural resource extraction industries, such as mining and oil and natural gas production. (September 26, 2011)