F.O. Licht cuts forecast for 2008/09 sugar output

The downward revision mainly reflected reduced production prospects in Asia with estimates for India, China, Pakistan and Thailand all cut. Licht put production of cane sugar in India at 16.1 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 19.0 million and far below the prior season’s 28.6 million. The analyst said output should rebound in 2009/10 in both India, the world’s top consumer, and top producer Brazil. “There are indications that output will rebound in 2009/10 as sugar will claw back significant territory from ethanol in Brazil’s key Centre/South harvest, with the country’s total sugar output seen rising by possibly up to 5 million tons, the report said. Sugar has been more profitable this year and it set to increase its share of the sugarcane crush. Licht said there should also be increased sugar production in India. “India is supposed to produce more sugar in 2009/10 after this year’s dismal crop but the extent of the rise is still uncertain at this time and the bigger rise in output will certainly occur in 2010/11 when the cane that is being planted now is ready for harvesting,” Licht said. (June 25, 2009)