ExxonMobil releases Outlook, predicts bright future for hybrids

ExxonMobil released “The Outlook for Energy,” which is developed and updated every year by a team of experts that rely on a combination of public and proprietary sources. The Outlook analyzes trends that determine and shape global energy supply and demand. In the newly updated Outlook, ExxonMobil predicts that by the year 2040, 50% of the cars in the world will be advanced hybrids, compared to about 1% today. ExxonMobil said hybrids will slowly move into the mainstream. Natural gas, nuclear power and renewable energy sources, like wind, will provide future additional energy requirements arising from the wider use of hybrid vehicles.
Exxon Mobil’s forecasts through 2040 include:

• Oil will continue to be the main source of energy throughout the world for many years. It said that 90% of the world’s transportation will continue to run on fossil fuels. It estimates that at current demand, there is enough oil in the world to last 100 years. It also predicts that there will be a 25% jump in global fuel consumption but oil companies will find more than enough oil to satisfy the increase in consumption. William Colton, ExxonMobil’s strategic planning chief, said that people may be pushed by vehicle mileage standards towards battery-powered cars, but the cheapest hybrids will also use petrol for extra power.
• Energy demand in developed nations will remain flat through 2040, but demand from China and other developing countries will continue to boost demand for crude oil and other petroleum-based fuels. Energy requirements of developing nations are expected to rise by as much as 60% from 2010 to 2040.
• Global GDP will grow by an average of 2.9% per annum while energy demand will grow by only 0.9%.
• Shale production will spread outside of the U.S. and production will double within the next three decades, reaching more than 500 billion cubic feet per day. Countries will adopt other drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing or frackling. Although criticized for potentially polluting groundwater, fracking is a technique that has enabled companies to unlock gas deposits from underground rock.
• There will be an increase in demand for liquid fuels from the current 88 million barrels to 110 million barrels by 2040. Many of those barrels will be produced from non-traditional sources like deepwater fields, natural gas liquids, Canadian oil sands and biofuels.
• Because of its relatively low carbon dioxide emission, demand for natural gas will increase by 60% by 2040. By 2025, coal will be replaced by natural gas as the second most popular fuel after oil. The use of coal will decline through the years.

(December 10, 2011)