ExxonMobil releases annual energy outlook

ExxonMobil recently released its annual forecast, “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.” The energy giant predicts that global energy demand in 2040 will be about 35% higher than that of 2010. A team of experts work on the annual forecast each year, using a combination of public and proprietary sources and guides.
Among other things, the “Outlook for Energy” highlights the pivotal role that efficiency occupies in balancing energy demand with the growing world economy. Following are other issues and aspects covered in the annual forecast:
• Efficient energy saving practices and technologies will support future energy needs. Other support will come from increased use of less carbon intensive fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables, as well as the development of unconventional energy sources that are now accessible because of technology advances.
• The global energy landscape will evolve significantly with the shifting of regional demand and supply patterns in the coming decades. These shifts will create new opportunities for international trade and economic growth.
• Oil will continue to be the most widely used fuel in the world. Natural gas will become the fastest growing major fuel, and would probably overtake coal by 2025 as the second most used fuel. Because of growing supplies of gas from shale and other unconventional sources in North America, 20% of the expected 65% increase in demand for global production will come from the region up until 2040.
• New technologies will continue to be important to the development of reliable and affordable energy, which is considered to be central to economic growth and human progress.
• North America will likely transition to becoming a net energy exporter by 2025. More than half of the growth in unconventional natural gas supply over the next two decades will be in North America. This will provide a strong foundation for strong economic growth across the United States, especially in industries such as energy, chemicals, steel and manufacturing.
• Energy for electricity generation will grow by 50% to 2040, and will continue to be the largest component of global demand. The growth will be supported by an expected 85% increase in electricity demand led by developing countries where there are currently 1.3 billion people without access to electricity.
• The world will gradually transition from coal to cleaner fuels for electricity generation, and a substantial portion of the global energy mix will be represented by natural gas, nuclear energy, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Since natural gas emits up to 60% less carbon dioxide than coal when used for electricity generation, it will be the fastest growing sector. Compared to less than 25% today, natural gas will account for 30% of global electricity generation by 2040.
• Economic output in countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will increase by 80% without increasing total energy use, with the help of energy saving practices and technologies such as hybrid vehicles and high efficiency natural gas power plants.
• The number of cars on the road worldwide is expected to double by 2040, although fuel demand will plateau and gradually decrease as consumers begin to favor smaller and lighter vehicles, and as technologies improve fuel efficiency. (December 12, 2012)