BP and ExxonMobil predict slow growth for electric vehicles

BP and ExxonMobil have released data which show that electric cars will make up a mere 4-5% of all cars in the world in the next 20-30 years. The figures run counter to the forecasts of governments and green lobby groups which say that over the same period, electric vehicles will enjoy up to 60% market share. “Oil will remain the dominant transport fuel and we expect 87% of transport fuel in 2030 will still be petroleum-based,” BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley explained. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil, the world’s biggest oil and gas company, said that the high cost of electric vehicles will mean that there won’t be much increase in sales during the 2030s.
Green groups and governments disagree with the forecasts of BP and ExxonMobil. But green groups and governments remain suspicious of the two companies’ forecasts. Although sales of electric vehicles remain low, China has set a target of 5 million electric vehicles plying its roads by 2020. The Australian Energy Market Commission, the main energy adviser of the Australian government, has predicted that by 2020, electric vehicles will comprise 20% of new car sales in Australia. According to the Committee on Climate, which advises the U.K. government, electric vehicles in the country will account for some 60% of new cars and vans by 2030. New Zealand has a target of 60% by 2040. President Obama said he wants one million electric vehicles running on U.S. roads by 2015, less than half of 1% of the country’s total fleet. U.S. experts and officials believe that an uptake in electric vehicles will occur in the latter part of this decade because technology will improve and economics of scale will kick in which will all ease consumers’ fears of being stranded when their batteries run out. Additionally, these past couple of years has seen auto shows launching more electric cars. A survey of 200 auto industry executives reveals a more optimistic outlook than that held by ExxonMobil and BP. According to the survey, which was conducted by KPMG, auto industry executives predict that electric vehicles will account for 6-10% of global auto sales by 2025. (February 1, 2012)