India to lead global oil consumption growth by 2025
India is set to outpace China as the primary driver of global oil consumption growth in 2024 and 2025, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Historically, China has dominated oil consumption growth since 1998, but shifting trends now place India at the forefront.
Over the next two years, India is expected to account for 25% of total global oil consumption growth. In 2024, global liquid fuel consumption is projected to rise by 0.9 million barrels per day (b/d), with a further increase of 1.3 million b/d forecast for 2025. India’s contribution will be substantial, with consumption increasing by 220,000 b/d in 2024 and 330,000 b/d in 2025, driven by rising demand for transportation and home cooking fuels.
In contrast, China’s oil consumption growth is forecast at 90,000 b/d in 2024 and 250,000 b/d in 2025. Factors such as the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, increased use of liquefied natural gas for trucking, and slowing economic growth have tempered China’s growth trajectory. Despite this, China remains the world’s largest oil consumer, with total liquid fuel consumption exceeding 16 million b/d in 2023, more than three times India’s 5.3 million b/d.
India’s surge in oil consumption reflects its expanding economy and growing energy needs, positioning it as a key player in the global energy landscape.
