ENERGY & LUBRICANTS: A View to the Future

Beijing, CHINA (October 30, 2014) – As the global economy continues to expand and living standards steadily improve for billions of people around the world, worldwide demand for energy is expected to rise significantly. In 2040, global energy demand is projected to rise by roughly 35 percent from 2010 according to ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.

While GDP is anticipated to rise dramatically in the years ahead, global energy demand will not rise as sharply – partly due to the gains the world is making with regard to energy efficiency. Modern, more efficient technologies, along with better fuels and energy management practices, are replacing less efficient ones. This includes everything from more efficient energy use in buildings and manufacturing processes, to significant gains in fuel economy of vehicles on the road, to adopting modern fuels instead of biomass in developing countries, and to growing use of high efficiency natural gas for electricity generation systems.

Much of the projected rise in energy demand over the coming decades will be driven byexpanding populations, increased urbanization, rising economic output and an expanding middle class. During this time, the global economy, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is expected to double in size, while the global population expands to an estimated 9 billion people.

Additionally, the shift from rural to urban areas will continue, with well over 50 percent of the world’s population living in cities today compared with just 30 percent in 1950. Developing countries, meanwhile, will account for more than half of global GDP growth over the next 26 years, with emerging markets like China leading the way.

All of this growth will have a significant impact on the global transportation sector, particularly in the commercial heavy duty, aviation, marine and rail sub-sectors. In fact, demand for commercial transportation is expected to increase by 70 percent overall. Growth will occur in all regions, with Asia Pacific leading the way with a more than 100 percent increase. Heavy-duty vehicle demand will increase by approximately 70 percent, while demand for light-duty vehicles will be essentially flat, as two big changes cancel each other out. During the same period, the world’s passenger car fleet will double.

The number of vehicles in China and the broader Asia Pacific region is expected to grow significantly. As a result, Asia is expected to grow from roughly 38 percent of global demand for automotive lubricants in 2013 to 45 percent by 2023 (Source: Kline and Company).

Meanwhile, China continues to implement more stringent regulations on emissions and require automakers to develop advanced engines that comply with the new standard. Auto OEMs are in turn seeking more energy-efficient synthetic oils for these engines. China’s new National V standards are equivalent to those in Europe, and call for a 25 percent reduction in nitrous oxide emissions for gasoline-powered vehicles and a 28 percent reduction for diesel passenger cars compared to the earlier National IV standard.

While national adoption of the new standard in China is scheduled for the end of 2017, Beijing and Shanghai have already implemented the new standard and started to retire millions of vehicles that are unable to comply.

So when we look out to the future, we essentially see the convergence of two intertwined themes: increased demand for energy due to population and GDP growth, coupled with the need for energy efficient solutions that help reduce GHG emissions and ease overall energy demand.

Addressing these trends will require engine lubricants to evolve to meet a number of challenges. Innovations in engine and equipment design have helped further energy-efficiency gains and have helped meet emissions-reduction requirements. However, to sustain or accelerate efficiency improvements, further advancements must be made to develop lubricants that help achieve even greater fuel economy and energy efficiency, longer drain intervals, and the ability to perform in increasingly severe operating conditions.

ExxonMobil Chemical believes these challenges present a tremendous opportunity for synthetic lubricants. We estimate that the demand for synthetic lubricants will account for over one-fourth of the global lubricant demand till 2020. We strongly believe that synthetic base stocks are best positioned to address these global needs moving forward, and meeting these future demands is the inspiration behind ExxonMobil Chemical’s R&D efforts. As a company, our mission is developing advanced synthetic lubricant base stocks that can help formulators create innovative lubricants to meet current and future demands of energy-efficient equipment.

A great example of these innovations is our SpectraSyn Elite mPAO molecule, the latest addition to our synthetic base stocks portfolio. SpectraSyn Elite mPAO has an orderly branched structure that provides improved performance in shear stability, viscosity index (VI), and low temperature performance. Engine oils, transmission fluids, industrial lubricants, oils and greases made with our synthetic base stocks help engines and equipment perform longer while also reducing energy consumption. Demonstrating benefits in the key areas of longer service life, reduced waste and lower fuel consumption, these synthetic lubricants outperform mineral-based oils in ways that are important to sustainability, such as running cleaner (lower emissions) and longer (less friction).

Synthetic ester-based fluids are also more biodegradable than mineral oils. Most of our EsterexTM esters are inherently biodegradable and support the formulation of a lubricant that can be used in contact with the environment. These biodegradable fluids minimize the environmental impact during normal use or in the case of accidental lubricant loss. Likewise, engine oils using synthetic base stocks feature extended drain intervals, reducing the frequency of oil changes and thereby reducing waste. Additionally, SynessticTM Alkylated Naphthalenes are unique molecules supporting enhanced engine oil performance via very good hydrolytic stability, thermal-oxidative stability and good additive solubility.

Although the world’s future energy needs present many challenges, synthetic lubricants can play a vital role in helping the world successfully meet future demand in an effective, sustainable way.

Brad Rinderknecht is Synthetics Global Marketing Manager at ExxonMobil Chemical Company. His presentation at the 2014 China International Lubricants Base Oil & Additives Conference will take place at Radisson Blu Hotel, 11:00 am, November 19.

About ExxonMobil Chemical
ExxonMobil Chemical is one of the world’s premier petrochemical companies with manufacturing, technology, and marketing operations around the world. The Company delivers a broad portfolio of products and solutions efficiently and responsibly, with a commitment to create outstanding customer and shareholder value. ExxonMobil Chemical endorses the principles of sustainable development, including the need to balance economic growth, social development and environmental considerations. To learn more, visit

www.exxonmobilchemical.com or www.exxonmobilsynthetics.com or www.spectrasynelite.com

Note to Editors:
1. The term “ExxonMobil Chemical” refers collectively to some or all of the companies affiliated with Exxon Mobil Corporation, and/or itself, which have chemical manufacturing and/or marketing operations around the world.
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