CFAN Takes the Lead in the Race to Provide Better Forecasts of Hurricane Paths

RENO, Nev.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–#Hurricanes–Public and private sector scientists are racing to provide hurricane
forecasts that provide better warnings. In 2017, Climate Forecast
Applications Network (CFAN) provided more accurate Atlantic hurricane
track forecasts than those of the European Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the official forecasts of NOAA’s
National Hurricane Center.

CFAN uses a proprietary tracking algorithm to improve upon the forecasts
provided by the European model. At all forecast lead times beyond 2
days, CFAN's forecast was on average more accurate than those of the
ECMWF and the NHC. At five days before landfall, the average track error
for CFAN’s track forecasts was 131. That is 7 miles smaller than the
EWMWF’s and 39 miles smaller than NHC’s.

The average track error for CFAN’s forecast was 287 miles at 10 days
lead time, which is comparable to the NHC’s average track error for the
3-day forecast in the early 1990s.

“Improved weather forecasting is an underappreciated success story,”
says Peter Webster, CFAN’s Chief Scientist. “The average track error of
NHC forecasts in 2017 at 5 days lead time was 170 miles, the same as the
2-day error in the mid 1990s.”

More accurate three- to ten-day hurricane forecasts help both public and
private organizations. Governments can provide better emergency
management. Utilities can restore service faster. Insurance companies
can make payments faster. Reinsurance companies can better handle
financial impacts.

“We are pleased with our hurricane forecasts in 2017 and the growth in
our business, particularly in the energy, insurance and insurance-linked
securities fields,” said Judith Curry, CFAN’s president. “For the 2018
season, we plan to offer real-time track verification as part of our
TropiCast hurricane forecast product.”

Contact us for additional information or interviews. See CFAN’s Track
Verification Analysis for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_51dfc910a2e54e8fa9e9b3650c8e9773.pdf.

See CFAN’s forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season: https://www.cfanclimate.net/seasonal-hurricane-forecasts.

About CFAN

Businesses and governments around the world rely on tools from Climate
Forecast Applications Network to manage weather and climate risks. CFAN
was founded in 2006 by Judith Curry and Peter Webster. It was launched
under the VentureLab program of Georgia Tech’s Enterprise Innovation
Institute. CFAN’s scientists build the most advanced commercially
available forecasting tools. CFAN’s research has been assisted by grants
from NOAA, Department of Defense, and the Department of Energy.

CFAN provides a comprehensive suite of forecast products for Atlantic
tropical cyclones, including forecasts of active systems, extended range
forecasts, monthly outlooks and seasonal hurricane forecasts. See the
CFAN website for more information about the firm, its research and
forecast products: https://www.cfanclimate.net/

Contacts

Climate Forecast Applications Network
Dr. Judith Curry, President
(404)
803-2012
[email protected]
https://www.cfanclimate.net/judith-curry