Boeing projects demand for 44,000 new airplanes by 2043

Boeing has released its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) at the Farnborough International Airshow, projecting a demand for nearly 44,000 new airplanes over the next 20 years. This forecast comes as air travel has fully recovered and even surpassed pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the industry’s resilience and growth potential.

Key highlights from the forecast

Boeing predicts a 3% increase in airplane deliveries over the next two decades, with the global commercial fleet expected to grow by 3.2% annually. Despite this growth, airlines are expected to boost productivity by increasing load factors and utilising airplanes for more hours each day.

The air cargo fleet is projected to grow by two-thirds by 2043, supporting a 4.1% annual increase in air cargo traffic. This growth underscores the critical role of air cargo in global trade, given its speed and reliability compared to other modes of transport.

Emerging markets will be primary drivers of this demand. South Asia is expected to see a 7.4% increase in passenger traffic, followed by Southeast Asia at 7.2%, and Africa at 6.4%. Eurasia is projected to lead in airplane deliveries, accounting for 22% of the total, with North America and China each accounting for 20%.

Single-aisle airplanes will constitute 71% of the 2043 fleet, with 33,380 new deliveries primarily serving short- to medium-haul routes. The global widebody fleet is also expected to more than double, with twin-aisle aircraft making up 44% of the Middle East fleet.

The demand for commercial services is expected to reach USD4.4 trillion, driven by maintenance, modification options, and digital solutions that enhance efficiency. The industry will also require nearly 2.4 million new personnel, including pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew.

Industry resilience and future outlook

“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing’s senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.

“As airlines respond to robust passenger demand, the services market continues to expand, not only as a result of fleet growth, but also with an increased focus on reducing operating costs and deploying efficient and sustainable solutions,” said Dan Abraham, senior vice president of Boeing Global Services Commercial Sales and Marketing.

Boeing’s comprehensive analysis underscores the industry’s adaptability and potential for growth, particularly in emerging markets. With the increasing focus on sustainability and efficiency, the future of aviation looks robust and promising.

Boeing has published the CMO annually since 1961. As the longest-running forecast of its kind, the CMO is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. 

For more information, you can read the complete Boeing Commercial Market Outlook.