Pike Research forecasts 75,000 electric drivetrain buses on roads worldwide by 2018

Pike Research’s recent report, “Electric Drive Buses,” examines the opportunities and challenges for hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell buses in the global market. The report reveals that the global market for electric drive buses will grow steadily over the next six years, and will have a compounded annual growth rate of 26% from 2012 to 2018. Pike’s findings conclude that there will be more than 75,000 electric drivetrain buses in service around the world by 2018. Growth in the e-bus market is expected to accelerate strongly in some regions including Eastern Europe and Latin America, but the largest sales volumes will be in the Asia-Pacific region. According to the report, more than 15,000 electric buses will be sold in the Asia-Pacific region in 2018, accounting for 75% of the world total. Sales in North America are expected to reach less than 2,500 in the same year.
“The biggest challenge for electric drive technologies has been the cost premium over conventional diesel buses or buses that run on compressed natural gas,” said Lisa Jerram, senior research analyst. “This premium has maintained for hybrids, even as they have seen significant adoption in the North American market. Fuel economy savings are critical to making the case for bus operators to pay more, especially in developed countries that are facing increasing austerity in their public budgets. Typically, hybrid buses need to show fuel economy improvements of around 40 percent, at current U.S. diesel prices, to pay off the price premium over the life of the bus.” (August 22, 2012)